Recently, turbulence has increasingly become a topic of concern within the aviation industry, as more incidents involving severe turbulence have made headlines. These occurrences, often resulting in injuries to passengers and crew, highlight the unpredictable nature of turbulence and its potential impact on flight safety.

On Sunday, May 26th, a Qatar Airways flight from Doha to Ireland experienced severe turbulence, resulting in injuries to at least 12 passengers. This incident is part of a growing trend, coming just days after a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore was diverted to Bangkok due to turbulence that caused a 6,000-foot drop within five minutes. Tragically, this earlier incident led to the death of a 73-year-old British man, with 20 others requiring intensive care. Another similar event occurred last Sunday, August 4th, when a Korean Air Airbus A330 (HL7584) was caught in turbulence, leaving 10 passengers and four cabin crew members injured. The flight, which had departed from Seoul Incheon International Airport en route to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, experienced 15 seconds of severe turbulence as it neared Tianjin Airport in China. So, is really turbulence becoming a growing concern in the air travel industry?

Understanding Turbulence: The Hidden Dangers

Turbulence is not a new phenomenon, but it is becoming increasingly dangerous. According to a 2021 study by the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), turbulence-related accidents are the most common type of airline incidents. The study, which examined data from 2009 to 2018, revealed that turbulence accounted for over one-third of reported airline accidents. While most of these incidents resulted in serious injuries rather than aircraft damage, they highlight the inherent risks turbulence poses to air travel.

What Causes Turbulence?

Turbulence can be compared to choppy waves at sea, caused by pockets of disturbed air. There are three primary sources: thermal (caused by warm air rising through cooler air), mechanical (due to airflow disruption by mountains or man-made structures), and shear (air pockets moving in different directions). Turbulence can cause an aircraft to rise, fall, and rock from side to side. Most turbulence occurs within clouds due to wind updrafts and downdrafts, with larger clouds, such as cumulonimbus thunderstorm clouds, often causing moderate to severe turbulence.

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is another type of turbulence that occurs in cloudless regions, making it difficult to detect. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) describes CAT as sudden and severe turbulence in cloudless conditions, often occurring around the jet stream at altitudes between 40,000 and 60,000 feet. The friction created by the speed difference between the jet stream air and the surrounding air can lead to turbulence. This form of turbulence is particularly challenging for pilots as it occurs unexpectedly and without visual warning.

The Risks of Mid-Air Turbulence

Aircraft are designed to withstand severe turbulence, and it is unlikely for turbulence to cause significant damage to an aircraft. However, the risks to passengers can be serious. Severe turbulence can cause violent movements, potentially throwing unbelted passengers across the cabin. In extreme cases, turbulence can cause structural damage to the aircraft due to strong winds. While fatalities and injuries from turbulence are rare, the NTSB reports that there were 163 serious turbulence-related injuries on US airlines between 2009 and 2022, averaging 12 per year.

The Impact of Global Warming on Turbulence

Some researchers suggest that climate change is increasing the likelihood of turbulence. A study from the University of Reading in the UK reported a 55% rise in severe turbulence between 1979 and 2020 on a frequently used North Atlantic route. This increase is attributed to changes in high-altitude wind speeds caused by warmer air resulting from carbon emissions. Similarly, researchers at the University of Chicago predict that rising temperatures could increase wind speeds in the fastest upper-level jet stream, potentially increasing turbulence. With global temperatures having already risen by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, the risks associated with turbulence may continue to grow.

Managing Turbulence incidents: What Pilots and Passengers Can Do?

Pilots receive detailed aviation forecasts before flying, which include meteorological data to help them plan routes that avoid turbulence, particularly around isolated thunderstorms. However, clear-air turbulence remains challenging to predict. Pilots rely on reports from other aircraft to avoid turbulent areas and may slow down the plane to minimize the impact. Passengers are advised to keep their seatbelts fastened at all times and avoid keeping heavy objects unsecured to ensure safety during unexpected turbulence.

Read also: Tim Clark: Airlines are Looking to Predict Air Turbulence Better and Notify Passengers About it

As the aviation industry continues to face the challenges posed by turbulence, both pilots and passengers must remain vigilant. The increasing frequency of turbulence-related incidents underscores the need for ongoing research and improved forecasting methods to enhance safety in the skies.