Was Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J28243 Brought Down by a Missile Strike?

On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 operated by an Embraer ERJ-190 aircraft crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, leaving 38 dead, including the pilots. In the aftermath, speculation surrounding the crash escalated, with initial evidence pointing toward a missile strike. This crash has sparked debate, with clues emerging from eyewitness accounts, video evidence, and the complex geopolitical backdrop.

Initial Evidence

Shortly after the crash, an anonymous Russian blogger known as “Fighterbomber,” affiliated with Russia’s Air Forces, uploaded a revealing video on his Telegram channel. The footage unveiled damage on the aircraft’s tail, consistent with an anti-aircraft missile strike. Fighterbomber’s commentary suggested that this revelation would overshadow alternative theories, such as a drone attack or an internal explosion caused by a bomb in the luggage compartment.

The theory gained traction on pro-war social media platforms, which shared additional videos highlighting visible damage to the aircraft’s tail and left wing.

These videos bore striking similarities to evidence from previous incidents where aircraft, both civilian and military, were shot down by anti-aircraft missiles. Survivors’ testimonies added weight to this narrative, with reports of large external fragments striking the plane. In a chilling video from inside the cabin, depressurization, shrapnel-induced holes in the seats, and wounded passengers seeking bandages underscored the chaos onboard.

Was It a Missile Strike?

The evidence strongly suggests an anti-aircraft missile was involved. Marks on the wreckage align with those typically caused by such strikes. However, without recovering remnants of the ammunition, determining the exact weapon type or its origin remains impossible. Compounding the uncertainty, reports confirm that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian drones near the Embraer’s landing zone earlier that day.

Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 departed Baku, Azerbaijan, heading for Grozny, Chechnya. Initially redirected to Makhachkala, Dagestan, due to heavy fog in Grozny, the flight’s deviation may have been linked to an impending Ukrainian drone attack. Reports from the Chechen opposition channel “Niyso” and subsequent confirmation by publication “Baza” revealed a drone raid on Grozny on the morning of December 25. Chechen officials, including Khamzat Kadyrov, later verified these claims with video evidence of the drones.

Oddly, Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 never landed in Makhachkala, opting instead to reroute to Aktau, Kazakhstan, under unclear circumstances. Dagestan, already on alert due to recent drone activity, did not anticipate the Embraer’s possible landing.

A leaked conversation between the pilots and Makhachkala’s air traffic control suggests the aircraft sustained damage during its descent into Grozny. Initially suspecting a bird strike, the pilots sought landing clearance at Mineralnye Vody but quickly redirected to Makhachkala. However, the damage to the plane’s controls likely prevented a successful landing in Dagestan.

Speculations of an Error by Russian Air Defenses

The possibility of a Russian air defense error looms large. This would not be the first time such a mistake has downed a civilian aircraft. Azerbaijan Airlines responded by suspending all flights to Grozny and Makhachkala until investigations conclude. The airline also released the following statement:

We are deeply saddened by the occurrence with an Embraer 190 today near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Our thoughts and heartfelt condolences go out to the families, friends, colleagues, and loved ones affected by this incident. We are closely monitoring the situation and we remain fully committed to supporting the relevant authorities.

The involvement of international specialists—Kazakhstan, as the crash location; Brazil, as the Embraer’s manufacturer; and potentially Azerbaijan—may ensure a more transparent investigation, a contrast to previous inquiries led by Russia.

Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 crash claimed the lives of 38 individuals, including the pilots, who might have shed light on the incident.

• Featured image via Reuters

Youssef Yahya

Youssef Yahya is the CEO and Founder of Aviation for Aviators, a platform dedicated to the aviation industry. With over 3 years of experience as an aviation writer, Youssef is passionate about sharing his insights on aviation, entrepreneurship, and the broader business landscape. As a Teaching Assistant in Entrepreneurship at Nile University, he also nurtures the next generation of entrepreneurs. When he’s not exploring the skies or business ventures, you can find him saying, ‘Drag your coffee, and let’s talk aviation, entrepreneurship, and football.’

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