By Youssef Yahya 
On February 4, 2025, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Digital Development and Transport (AZAL) released a 53-page preliminary investigation report detailing the events leading up to the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E-190 crash in December 2024, which occurred on December 25, 2024.
The preliminary report from the Kazakh government has attributed the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E-190 crash in December 2024 to damage “probably caused by external objects penetrating the aircraft components.“
Flight Details and Tragic Outcome
The aircraft, registered as 4K-AZ65, was operating flight J2-8243 from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, when it suddenly diverted across the Caspian Sea. It crashed approximately five kilometers northwest of Aktau International Airport (SCO), breaking into multiple pieces upon impact.
The crash resulted in the tragic loss of the captain, co-pilot, a senior flight attendant, and 35 passengers. The aircraft was carrying a total of 64 people, including the flight crew—comprising the aircraft commander, co-pilot, chief flight attendant, and two flight attendants—along with 60 adult passengers and two children.
External Damage and Possible Cause
According to the report, significant external damage was found along the aircraft’s fuselage, particularly concentrated in the rear section. The damage was attributed to “foreign objects” that were not part of the aircraft. Photographs included in the report showed multiple puncture holes on the port side of the tail section. There was no evidence of a bird strike.
The type of damage observed is consistent with shrapnel from an anti-aircraft missile. These missiles contain a warhead filled with explosives and metal fragments, designed to detonate in proximity to a target rather than on direct impact. The resulting shrapnel is released at a perpendicular angle, aiming to disable key systems, which can lead to a loss of control and the aircraft’s destruction.
Russian Air Defenses and Missile Fragment Discovery
The Kremlin confirmed that Russian air defenses were active on December 25, 2024, at the time when the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 attempted to land in Grozny. An anonymous Azerbaijani government source told Reuters that investigators recovered and identified a fragment of a Pantsir-S missile from the wreckage.
Aircraft Condition and Flight Recorder Analysis
The report confirmed that the aircraft was fully airworthy before its flight to Grozny. Data from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) verified that all flight control systems were functioning normally before the incident. The engines were also operating properly until the crash.
However, the aircraft lost GPS signals while flying over Russian airspace and again over Kadyrov Grozny International Airport (GRV). Due to poor weather conditions, the crew made two unsuccessful landing attempts in Grozny before the captain opted to return to Baku.
Cockpit Voice Recorder Findings
According to the report, the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) captured two external noises within a 24-second timeframe. Analysis of the CVR and FDR data indicated that four seconds after the first noise, the third hydraulic system failed, followed by the first hydraulic system six seconds later, and the second hydraulic system 21 seconds after that.
Final Report Timeline
The government of Kazakhstan has stated that the final report on the cause of the accident will be completed within one year from the date of the crash. Further investigations are expected to determine the definitive cause of the disaster.
- Featured image by Gareth Mears
Youssef Yahya is the CEO and Founder of Aviation for Aviators, a platform dedicated to the aviation industry. With over 3 years of experience as an aviation writer, Youssef is passionate about sharing his insights on aviation, entrepreneurship, and the broader business landscape. As a Teaching Assistant in Entrepreneurship at Nile University, he also nurtures the next generation of entrepreneurs. When he’s not exploring the skies or business ventures, you can find him saying, ‘Drag your coffee, and let’s talk aviation, entrepreneurship, and football.’
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